Slowing US Oil Production Dampens Export Terminal Hopes
As US oil production growth decelerates, the prospects for ambitious terminal projects aiming to expand crude shipments to international markets are clouded with uncertainty.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, constructing new terminals to accommodate supertankers was a promising investment. However, exports of US crude in 2024 expanded at their slowest pace since the pandemic-impacted years.
"Prior to the pandemic, it was more a question of when, not if," stated Barbara Harrison, Chevron's President of Supply and Trading. "Now, there's more of a question of if these projects will materialize."
Currently, four US projects are in the planning stages to construct terminals capable of loading supertankers off the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. However, commercialization efforts, such as Enterprise Products Partners LP's Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT), have faced challenges.
In the past, companies like Enterprise, Trafigura Group, Phillips 66, and Energy Transfer LP积极 engaged in export terminal construction during the boom period following the 2015 lifting of the US crude export ban.
However, the rapid production growth in the Permian region, which defined the first decade of the shale revolution, has slowed down. Drillers are now prioritizing investor returns and capital discipline rather than output expansion.
According to RBN Energy, the US oil export capacity is estimated at approximately 7 million barrels per day, significantly exceeding the actual shipments of 4.1 million per day last year. Export growth expectations for 2025 remain modest, with Chevron's Harrison estimating an increase in daily shipments by "hundreds of thousands" rather than millions.
US crude production growth plummeted by 70% last year to 279,000 barrels per day. The Energy Information Administration forecasts a slight uptick in 2025 before a sharp decline to 78,000 barrels per day in 2026.