Oil Price Swings Amidst Trade Tensions and Supply Concerns
Oil prices experienced volatility on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) settling lower for the fourth consecutive week. Brent futures (BZ=F) declined modestly but managed to end a three-week losing streak.
Concerns over supply disruptions following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments on Iran's oil exports briefly pushed prices higher. However, the potential for an escalating trade war has capped gains. President Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs, along with retaliatory measures from China, have raised worries about reduced global demand.
Earlier in the week, oil prices had dipped due to hopes for a ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. JPMorgan analysts have maintained their 2025 outlook for Brent at $73 per barrel, citing anticipated supply surpluses. Looking ahead to 2026, they forecast prices to fall below $60 by year-end, with an average of $61.
Despite recent fluctuations, WTI and Brent prices have remained relatively stable year-to-date, with WTI slightly down and Brent marginally higher since January.