Netflix Q4 Earnings Preview: Strong Results Expected Amid Content Surge and Sports Domination
Key Stats (Bloomberg Consensus Estimates):
* Revenue: $10.11 billion vs. $8.83 billion in Q4 2023
* Earnings per Share: $4.18 vs. $2.11 in Q4 2023
* Net Subscriber Additions: 9.18 million vs. 13.12 million in Q4 2023
Analysts' Expectations:
* High expectations for strong earnings after a successful Q4 with key content and sports events.
* Solid content slate featuring "Squid Game" and Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson boxing match.
* Sports programming, including NFL games and WWE Raw, expected to drive subscriber growth.
Content Dominance:
* Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson match garnered over 108 million global viewers, making it the most-streamed sporting event ever.
* NFL games averaged around 30 million viewers, including the most-watched Christmas Day game in US history.
* Expansion into sports streaming with WWE Raw expected to enhance growth and retention.
Advertising Success:
* Ad tier reached 70 million global monthly active users in two years.
* Recognition for Netflix's advertising efforts, which have contributed to revenue growth.
Price Hikes in Sight:
* Year-over-year engagement levels indicate potential headwinds for further price increases.
* Last price hike in January 2022, raising Standard plan cost to $15.49 and Premium tier to $19.99 (now $22.99).
* Ad-supported plan remains inexpensive at $6.99 per month, but analysts predict an upcoming price adjustment.
Valuation Concerns:
* Strengthening dollar may lead to downward revision of 2025 revenue outlook.
* Netflix anticipates 11%-13% revenue growth, slower than the previous year's 15%.
* Large price increase could offset revenue growth projections.