Mister Car Wash's Q4 Sales Beat Estimates, but Full-Year Guidance Misses Expectations

Key Financial Metrics:

* Revenue: $251.2 million (9.1% YoY growth, 1.2% beat)
* Non-GAAP EPS: $0.09 (25.1% beat)
* Adjusted EBITDA: $78.28 million (5.7% beat)

Full-Year Guidance:

* Revenue: $1.05 billion (2.3% below estimates)
* Adjusted EPS: $0.44 (12.2% above estimates)
* EBITDA: $340 million (below estimates)

Other Highlights:

* Same-Store Sales: 6% YoY growth
* Free Cash Flow: -$20.4 million (improved from -$70.27 million in Q4 2023)
* Operating Margin: 12.7% (down from 16% YoY)

Company Overview:

Mister Car Wash (NYSE: MCW) operates conveyorized car wash services in the United States.

Growth Prospects:

* Five-year sales growth: 9.6% CAGR
* Recent demand slowdown: 6.5% annualized revenue growth in the past two years
* Same-store sales growth: 1.7% YoY over the last two years

Cash Flow Dynamics:

* Negative free cash flow margin: -10.7% over the past two years
* Cash burn in Q4: $20.4 million (8.1% margin)
* Analyst estimates forecast further cash burn in the coming year

Market Reaction:

After reporting Q4 results, Mister Car Wash's stock rose 4.1% to $7.91.

Conclusion:

While Mister Car Wash exceeded expectations in Q4, its full-year guidance missed estimates, raising concerns among investors. The market appears to be prioritizing quarterly performance over guidance, but it remains to be seen if this optimism will translate into long-term value for shareholders.