McDonald's (MCD): Earnings Preview and 2025 Recovery Plan

Fourth Quarter Earnings

Analysts expect McDonald's (MCD) fourth quarter results, due on Monday before market open, to reflect the company's recent challenges.

* Revenue: $6.45 billion (up slightly from $6.41 billion)
* Adjusted EPS: $2.84 (down from $2.95)
* Global same-store sales growth: -0.91% (down from +3.40%)

Full Fiscal 2024 Year

For the full fiscal year 2024, analysts anticipate a modest recovery.

* Revenue: $25.99 billion (up from $25.49 billion)
* Adjusted EPS: $11.74 (down slightly from $11.94)
* Global same-store sales growth: -0.39% (down from +9.00%)

Earnings Breakdown

* US same-store sales growth: -0.35% (vs. +4.30% in 2023)
* International-owned same-store sales growth: -1.22% (vs. +4.40% in 2023)
* International franchised same-store sales growth: -0.38% (vs. +0.70% in 2023)

Challenges and Opportunities

McDonald's fourth quarter will include the impact of the E. coli outbreak in late October. Analysts will be monitoring margins and the effectiveness of the McValue menu platform in driving foot traffic.

Forward-Looking Commentary

Analysts predict a "back-half-weighted" year for McDonald's in 2025, with easier comparisons boosting performance. However, concerns remain about overreliance on promotions and franchisee profitability.

Wall Street Ratings

* Citi: Neutral
* BTIG: Neutral
* Wedbush: Outperform
* TD Cowen: Hold