EU-US Trade: Key Facts and Future Outlook

Goods Trade Deficit

* EU has a consistent goods trade deficit with the US, with a value of €155.8 billion in 2023.
* Conversely, the US has a surplus in services trade with the EU, amounting to €104 billion in 2023.

Germany's Dominance in EU Exports

* Germany accounts for over 30% of the EU's transatlantic goods exports, primarily cars and machinery.
* Italy is the second-largest EU exporter to the US, with a 13% share.

EU Unity Amid Tariff Threat

* EU policymakers emphasize the importance of unity against US tariff threats.
* However, recent political shifts towards nationalism and populism may challenge this unity.
* Italy's right-wing Prime Minister Meloni and Hungary's Orban may have contrasting views on US-EU relations.

Oil and Gas

* The US has been the primary supplier of LNG to the EU and UK, providing 46% of LNG imports in 2024.
* Trump has urged the EU to import more US oil and gas, but current production constraints and domestic demand limit this possibility.
* Long-term LNG contracts or a reduction in Russian LNG imports could increase US exports.

Military Purchases

* Defense spending is another factor in the trade relationship.
* US pressure on NATO members to increase defense spending has led to an increase in EU arms imports from the US.
* European countries debate the allocation of funds for non-EU arms purchases and the development of their own defense industry.