Walmart Expected to Report Robust Q4 as Inflation-Driven Consumers Seek Value

Earnings Preview

Walmart (WMT) is poised to deliver another solid quarter as inflation-weary shoppers prioritize value. The retail behemoth is scheduled to announce its Q4 and FY2025 results on Thursday before market open.

Consensus estimates project revenue to surge to $180.21 billion, while adjusted earnings per share are expected to climb to $0.65. US same-store sales are forecast to jump 4.66% for the quarter.

Analyst Expectations

Despite high expectations, analysts at Jefferies and Deutsche Bank believe Walmart will exceed forecasts. Jefferies' Corey Tarlowe highlights the company's successful acquisition of higher-income shoppers through its emphasis on convenience and value. Deutsche Bank's Krisztina Katai anticipates record-high Walmart+ member penetration in 2H2024 and early 2025.

Full-Year Outlook

For the full year, Wall Street anticipates a 5% revenue increase to $680.7 billion. In its previous quarterly report, Walmart raised its FY2025 guidance for the third time, pegging net sales growth between 4.8% and 5.1%, up from the earlier projection of 3.75% to 4.75%.

Earnings Breakdown

Q4 2025 vs. Q4 2024
* Revenue: $180.21 billion vs. $173.39 billion
* Adjusted EPS: $0.65 vs. $0.60
* US Same-Store Sales Growth: 4.66% vs. 3.9%
* US Walmart Same-Store Sales Growth: 4.36% vs. 4%
* Foot Traffic Growth: 2.67% vs. 4.3%
* Ticket Growth: 1.96% vs. -0.3%
* E-commerce Sales Growth: 2.88% vs. 2.4%
* Sam's Club US Same-Store Sales Growth: 4.99% vs. 3.1%

FY 2025 vs. FY 2024
* Revenue: $680.70 billion vs. $648.13 billion
* Adjusted EPS: $2.49 vs. $2.33
* US Same-Store Sales Growth: 4.63% vs. 5.5%
* US Walmart Same-Store Sales Growth: 4.62% vs. 5.6%
* Sam's Club US Same-Store Sales Growth: 5.35% vs. 4.8%

Stock Performance and Market Outlook

Walmart stock has soared over 75% in the past year, outperforming the S&P 500's 23% gain and Target's 13% decline. Analysts remain optimistic about its future performance, citing its potential to capitalize on high-margin revenue streams and technology integration.

Additionally, Walmart's domestic focus and private label offerings provide a buffer against potential tariff impacts. The company's value-oriented products, such as its Great Value brand, are positioned to mitigate inflationary pressures.