US Crude Inventories Fall, While Gasoline and Distillate Stocks Rise

According to an extended Reuters poll, U.S. crude oil stockpiles are projected to have declined last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories likely increased.

Nine analysts surveyed by Reuters predict a drawdown of approximately 1.6 million barrels in crude inventories for the week ending January 17.

The poll precedes reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA), scheduled for Wednesday at 4:30 p.m. ET and Thursday at 12:00 p.m. ET, respectively. Both reports were delayed due to the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

EIA data shows crude inventories declined by 2 million barrels to 412.7 million barrels in the week ended January 10, exceeding analysts' forecasts of a 992,000-barrel draw.

Reuters Forecast vs. EIA Actuals

| | Reuters Forecast | EIA Actual | Previous Week | Year-Ago Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude (million barrels) | -1.6 | -2.0 | 412.7 | -9.2 |
| Distillate (million barrels) | 0.3 | 3.1 | 132.0 | -1.4 |
| Gasoline (million barrels) | 2.3 | 5.9 | 243.6 | 4.9 |
| Refinery Runs (percentage points) | -0.8 | -1.6 | 91.7 | -7.1 |
| Natural Gas Storage (BCF) | -300 | (N/A) | (N/A) | (N/A) |

Analysts anticipate a gasoline inventory increase of approximately 2.3 million barrels. Distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, are expected to rise by about 300,000 barrels.

Refinery utilization is projected to decrease by 0.8 percentage points from 91.7% in the previous week.

Organization-Specific Forecasts

| Organization | Crude | Distillate | Gasoline | Refinery Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Again Capital | -1.4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | -0.7 |
| Commodity Research Group | 0.6 | -0.6 | 2.9 | -0.8 |
| Confluence Group | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | -2.0 |
| Excel Futures | -2.4 | 3.9 | 4.7 | -0.8 |
| LSEG | -2.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Macquarie Group | -7.9 | -0.6 | 3.2 | -0.6 |
| Price Futures Group | -3.0 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -1.0 |
| Ritterbusch Associates | 1.4 | -2.0 | 2.5 | -1.2 |
| Rystad Energy | -4.2 | 0.6 | 2.2 | -0.8 |