Trump's Social Media Activity Shows Decline in Market-Moving Posts
A study conducted by JPMorgan reveals that President Donald Trump has posted significantly fewer market-sensitivities on social media since his reelection compared to his first term.
According to the bank's analysis, only 10% of Trump's 126 recent posts have had a noticeable impact on currency markets. However, the number of such posts has increased in recent weeks, with over 20 published last week.
Trade tariffs have emerged as a key topic driving market movements. Approximately one-third of Trump's posts concerning tariffs have resulted in currency fluctuations.
The most significant impact occurred in February when Trump's announcement of emergency tariffs on Mexico and Canada led to a respective decline of over 2% and 1% in the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar.
Posts targeting China have also caused market volatility, with the yuan experiencing both depreciation and appreciation depending on the tone of the messages.
Despite the decline in market-moving social media posts, Trump has increased direct communication from the Oval Office through frequent question-and-answer sessions with the media.
JPMorgan's backtesting suggests that trading based on Trump's posts has not been particularly profitable. Even under optimistic assumptions, buying the dollar against G10 high beta currencies would have yielded a gain of no more than 4%.