Trump's Focus on Canada: Tariffs, USMCA, and Political Tensions
Imminent Tariffs
Donald Trump has consistently targeted Canada with tariff threats since taking office in 2017. His blanket 25% duties on both Canada and Mexico could be implemented as early as February 1st, potentially alongside tariffs on China and the European Union.
USMCA Renewal
Trump's tariff threats coincide with the upcoming renewal of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2026. Henrietta Treyz suggests that these threats may be a strategy to gain leverage in negotiations, particularly regarding key commodities like lumber and dairy.
Limited Basis for Tariffs
Trump has justified his tariffs on Canada by citing drug smuggling and illegal immigration. However, data indicates a limited role for Canada in both areas. The Drug Enforcement Administration downplays Canada's contribution to the opioid crisis, while the vast majority of border apprehensions occur at the Mexico border.
Political Tensions
Trump's personal animosity toward Justin Trudeau is also a factor in his obsession with Canada. His clashes with Trudeau have escalated tensions between the two countries.
Potential Economic Consequences
If Trump's tariffs are implemented, they could have significant economic repercussions for both countries. Canada is America's largest importer and could retaliate by targeting American goods like orange juice, toilets, and steel. Experts predict a potential 3% decline in Canadian GDP, triggering a recession.