Trump's Social Media Posts: A Shift in Focus from the Stock Market
President Donald Trump's social media presence has seen a marked decline in mentions of the stock market since the start of his second term. JPMorgan strategist Antonin Delair's analysis of 126 social media posts by Trump reveals that references to the stock market have largely "disappeared."
First Term: Stock Market Boosting
During his first term, Trump frequently highlighted positive US economic developments such as low unemployment, rising stock prices, and factory openings. Mentions of a strong stock market performance accounted for 57% of his tweets.
Second Term: Focus on Debt and Tariffs
Trump's social media posts now emphasize debt ceiling discussions, government spending, and the benefits of tariffs. His sole mention of the stock market since re-election has come in the broader context of overall economic performance.
Impact on Foreign Exchange
Delair's research found that only 10% of Trump's recent social media posts have had a significant impact on the foreign exchange market. Hawkish tariff posts can trigger a broad dollar rally, while dovish ones (such as tariff delays) primarily affect the currencies involved.
Other Concerns Dominating Trump's Attention
Despite the stock market's near-record highs, Trump's social media time is preoccupied with other pressing issues. The soaring US budget deficit, rising federal debt interest, and Elon Musk-led DOGE's challenges to government spending all command his attention.
Trump's Tariff Policy
Trump's tariff policy is taking shape, with the administration imposing tariffs on steel and Chinese imports. The potential for additional 25% automotive tariffs on Canada and Mexico has raised concerns within the US auto industry.
Analysts' Perspectives
Industry leaders like Ford CEO Jim Farley caution that prolonged 25% tariffs from Canada and Mexico could significantly impact the auto industry, leading to lost profits and job losses.