Trans Mountain Anticipates Increased Shipping Interest Amid Potential U.S. Tariffs
Canadian pipeline operator Trans Mountain expects increased demand for its transportation services in light of potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian oil imports. The pipeline, capable of transferring up to 890,000 barrels of crude daily from Alberta to the Pacific Coast, currently operates at around 80% capacity, with 20% available for spot bookings at higher rates.
Trans Mountain's pipeline exports account for 9% of Canada's total crude exports, gaining attention following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a 10% tariff on Canadian oil imports, later paused for 30 days. Traditionally, nearly 4 million barrels of Canada's oil exports were destined for U.S. refineries or re-export via Gulf Coast ports to Asia.
The operational start of the Trans Mountain expansion in May provided Canada with an alternative route to export higher crude volumes directly, predominantly to Asia, reducing its reliance on the United States.
"We anticipate there will be increased interest to ship on our system in the face of U.S. tariffs, but it is too early to predict what the volumes will be," Trans Mountain stated via email.
The company anticipates an increase in Asian deliveries, coupled with potential deeper discounts for Canadian crude. Moreover, Trans Mountain is exploring options to enhance throughput efficiency and system capacity within the next four to five years under the current regulatory framework.
According to ship tracking firm Kpler, Vancouver's export average has been around 370,000 barrels per day over the past eight months, with approximately 51% heading to Asia (mainly China) in 2024 and the remainder to the United States.