Rivian to Report Q4 and Full-Year Results, Eyes Positive EBITDA

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) is set to release its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results after the market close on Wednesday. Investors will be keen on assessing the company's progress in curtailing losses and achieving a projected "modest gross profit" for the quarter.

Quarterly Estimates

Analysts expect Rivian to report revenue of $1.386 billion in Q4, a 5.4% increase year-over-year and 57.5% higher than the previous quarter's $874 million. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to be a loss of $0.65, while its adjusted EBITDA is projected to be a loss of $399.8 million.

Full-Year Production

Rivian has maintained its annual production forecast of 47,000 to 49,000 units. In January, the company announced that it had produced 49,476 vehicles and delivered 51,579 in 2023. For Q4, Rivian produced 12,727 and delivered 14,183 vehicles.

Key Developments

During Q4, Rivian expanded its partnership with Volkswagen (VWAGY), securing additional funding for their joint venture. The joint venture will leverage Rivian's zonal architecture and software stack for the launch of Rivian's R2 SUV in 2026.

Additionally, Rivian received a "conditional commitment" for a $6.6 billion loan from the Department of Energy (DOE) to support the construction of its assembly plant outside Atlanta. However, the loan is under scrutiny by the current administration and may face delays.

Regulatory Uncertainties

The status of the federal EV tax credit remains uncertain, with the Republican Party indicating potential repeal. Pure-play automakers like Rivian could be significantly impacted by the tax credit's removal.

Commercialization Efforts

Rivian recently opened orders for its EDV commercial delivery van, seeking to diversify its revenue streams and reduce costs. Analysts will monitor management's demand expectations for 2025, updates on the Georgia plant loan, and the commercialization of the EDV.