Oil Markets Swing amid Retaliatory Tariff Fears and Iran Supply Concerns
Oil prices fluctuated on Friday as investors assessed the potential impact of retaliatory US tariffs and the implications of stricter US policy against Iran on global supply.
WTI and Brent Crude Decline
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled in negative territory for a fourth consecutive week, while Brent futures also dipped slightly, though breaking a three-week losing streak.
Supply Worries Boost Prices
Oil prices initially gained as much as 1% amid concerns over supply after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the US intends to restore Iran's oil exports to pre-Trump levels.
Trade War Fears Cap Gains
However, the threat of an escalating trade war between the US and China limited price increases. President Trump has signed a plan for reciprocal tariffs, raising concerns about their impact on global demand.
Demand Outlook in Focus
Analysts remain cautious about the demand outlook, with BOK Financial's Dennis Kissler expressing concerns about the potential impact of higher US tariffs on global growth.
Ukraine-Russia War Truce Prospects
Earlier this week, oil prices declined on expectations of a ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia war, but analysts believe a comprehensive peace agreement is unlikely in the near term.
JPMorgan's Price Forecasts
JPMorgan analysts maintain their 2025 Brent price forecast of $73 per barrel amid ample supply. However, they expect Brent prices to fall below $60 by the end of 2026 due to continued surpluses.
Year-to-Date Performance
WTI has declined slightly year-to-date, while Brent is marginally higher since the beginning of the year.