Oil Prices Fluctuate Amidst Trade Tensions and Supply Concerns
Key Points:
* Oil prices initially gained on Friday due to supply worries stemming from US sanctions against Iran.
* However, the threat of an escalating trade war capped gains.
* President Trump's reciprocal tariff plan and Beijing's retaliatory duties raised concerns about global demand.
* JPMorgan maintains a $73 per barrel forecast for Brent in 2025 and predicts prices below $60 by year-end 2026.
Details:
West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) crude declined for the fourth consecutive week, while Brent futures (BZ=F) slightly declined, ending a three-week losing streak.
Supply concerns arose after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the US aimed to reduce Iranian exports to 100,000 barrels per day. This followed new sanctions targeting individuals, firms, and tankers.
However, trade war worries have limited price upside. President Trump's reciprocal tariff plan and China's retaliatory duties have raised concerns about global demand.
Additionally, the prospect of a Ukraine-Russia peace agreement weighed on prices earlier in the week. JPMorgan analysts forecast a $73 per barrel Brent price in 2025 and predict prices below $60 by the end of 2026 due to supply surpluses.
WTI has slightly declined year-to-date, while Brent has gained less than 1%.