Oil Market Swings Amidst US Tariffs, Iran Supply Concerns
Oil prices fluctuated on Friday, influenced by a mix of factors.
Retaliatory Tariffs and Iran Sanctions
Traders weighed the potential impact of retaliatory US tariffs in response to China's duties on US goods. The tariff plan followed sanctions imposed on Iran, targeting individuals, firms, and tankers.
Supply Concerns
Oil prices initially gained following comments by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the US commitment to reduce Iran's oil exports to pre-Trump levels.
Demand Concerns
However, the threat of an escalating trade war has tempered price movements. Analysts express concerns that higher US tariffs could curb global demand.
Ukraine-Russia Conflict
Earlier in the week, oil prices declined on optimism for a possible truce in the Ukraine-Russia war. A ceasefire could alleviate market concerns over supply disruptions.
Outlook
JPMorgan analysts maintain a neutral outlook for Brent crude in 2025, averaging $73 per barrel. They forecast a surplus leading to a decline in Brent prices below $60 by year-end 2026, with an average of $61.