Netflix Q4 Earnings Preview: Strong Results Expected Amid Content Surge and Sports Dominance
Netflix (NFLX) is poised to release its fiscal fourth quarter earnings report on Tuesday after the market closes. Analysts anticipate robust results, spurred by a strong content lineup, successful sports events, and the return of "Squid Game."
Wall Street Expectations
According to Bloomberg consensus estimates, analysts forecast:
* Revenue: $10.11 billion (Netflix's guidance: $10.13 billion) vs. $8.83 billion in Q4 2023
* Earnings per share: $4.18 (Netflix's guidance: $4.23) vs. $2.11 in Q4 2023
* Net subscriber additions: 9.18 million vs. 13.12 million in Q4 2023
Content Success and Sports Impact
Geetha Ranganathan of Bloomberg Intelligence highlights Netflix's exceptional content slate, including live sports programming that has dominated the platform. The "Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson" boxing match became the most-streamed sporting event, with over 108 million viewers globally. NFL games also averaged around 30 million viewers.
Ranganathan believes sports will significantly shape Netflix's future and drive subscriber growth. The recent debut of WWE Raw is also expected to contribute to retention.
Ad Tier Progress
Netflix's ad-supported tier has garnered 70 million global monthly active users in two years. Investors recognize the company's advertising successes, contributing to its stock's strong performance.
Potential Price Hikes
Ranganathan anticipates a price increase in the US market, noting that Netflix's Standard plan has remained at $15.49 since January 2022. The company phased out its lowest-priced ad-free streaming plan, making the Standard plan its cheapest ad-free option.
Valuation Considerations
Analysts expect a downward revision to Netflix's 2025 revenue outlook due to currency headwinds. Ranganathan predicts that Netflix may offset this by implementing a significant price increase this year.
Outlook
"There are very high expectations going into this quarter," says Ranganathan. Netflix's strong content performance, sports dominance, and ongoing ad tier success position it for a successful report.