January Jobs Report: Hiring Slows, Unemployment Steady
The highly anticipated January jobs report is set to be released on Friday, providing insights into the state of the US economy at the start of 2025. Economists forecast a slowdown in hiring, with non-farm payrolls expected to increase by 170,000, compared to 256,000 in December.
The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market. Data from ADP shows a gain of 183,000 private sector jobs in January, slightly higher than the previous month.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reveals a flat hiring rate of 3.4%. However, the quits rate, an indicator of worker confidence, remains unchanged at 2%.
Despite the slowdown in hiring, layoffs remain low, suggesting a stable labor market. The recent data suggests a "broadly stable" labor market, aligning with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments.
Investors anticipate a low likelihood (less than 50%) of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at its June meeting, based on the CME FedWatch Tool. The market expects the following key indicators in the upcoming jobs report:
* Nonfarm payrolls: +170,000 vs. +256,000 previously
* Unemployment rate: 4.1% vs. 4.1% previously
* Average hourly earnings, month over month: +0.3% vs. +0.3% previously
* Average hourly earnings, year over year: +3.8% vs. +3.9% previously
* Average weekly hours worked: 34.3 vs. 34.3 previously