Gold Soars to Record Highs Amidst Economic Uncertainties and Geopolitical Tensions
Gold's relentless rally reached unprecedented heights on Thursday, closing in on the coveted $3,000 mark. This surge is driven by escalating geopolitical and trade risks, coupled with concerns over inflation and the potential impact on the US economy.
Market Dynamics
Gold futures (GC=F) surged to an intraday high of $2,973 per ounce, while cash market gold breached a record $2,954 an ounce. This upswing is fueled by fears of a deepening trade war, as President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.
Wall Street analysts anticipate retaliatory measures from other countries, potentially exacerbating inflation and bolstering demand for safe-haven assets like gold. JPMorgan strategists believe that "disruptive tariffs will likely worsen economic growth concerns and heighten inflation risks, continuing to drive gold purchases as a hedge."
Geopolitical Uncertainties
Unresolved tensions in the Ukraine-Russia conflict have also contributed to the gold rally. Trump's recent comments suggesting a withdrawal of support for Ukraine raised concerns about the stability of the region and potential market disruptions.
US Gold Reserves
President Trump's намерение verify the gold stored at Fort Knox has also sparked speculation of a potential revaluation of US gold reserves. Currently valued at $42 per ounce, a mark-to-market revaluation could significantly impact the gold price.
Analyst Forecasts
Goldman Sachs has upgraded its year-end 2025 gold forecast to $3,100 per troy ounce, citing increased central bank demand, with China leading the charge. They estimate that this demand will boost the gold price by 9% by year-end. However, continued policy uncertainty and tariff fears could push gold prices even higher, potentially reaching $3,300/toz by year-end.