Gas Prices Poised to Surge as Refinery Maintenance Impacts Market

Gasoline prices are projected to rise significantly in the coming weeks due to the impact of refinery maintenance and outages, particularly in California.

According to AAA, the national average gasoline price sits at $3.16 per gallon, a 0.04% uptick from a month earlier and a 0.11% decrease from this time last year.

"The national average has been driven higher by sharp price increases on the West Coast," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. "Refinery maintenance and outages there have created a ripple effect, pushing prices higher in surrounding states."

West Coast Fuel Prices Soar

The West Coast has been hit especially hard by refinery disruptions, with California facing the highest gasoline prices in the US due to its green initiatives. In the past month alone, California's gasoline prices jumped by $0.41 to $4.85 per gallon, roughly 20 cents higher than a year ago.

Washington state saw a similar increase, with prices rising by $0.22 to $4.15 per gallon over the past month. Nevada also experienced a rise of $0.23, bringing its average price to $3.89 per gallon.

Experts Forecast Further Increases

Industry experts predict that the national average gas price will increase by $0.25 to $0.60 between now and mid-April, with the West Coast remaining the most expensive region. Tom Kloza of OPIS anticipates an additional rise of $0.20 to $0.33 per gallon before a peak around Easter or Cinco de Mayo.

Refinery Outages and Summer Blends Drive Demand

Scheduled seasonal maintenance at refineries have reduced supply, contributing to higher prices. A fire at the Martinez refinery in Northern California in February has further exacerbated the situation, forcing the closure of nearly all its units.

The outages coincide with the annual switch to more expensive summer fuel blends, with Western states implementing the changeover first. Lower crude oil prices and reduced gasoline consumption are expected to bring relief in the latter half of the year.