Gasoline Prices Anticipated to Rise Ahead of Summer Transition

Current Situation:

Gasoline prices have experienced a slight increase, with the national average hovering around $3.16 per gallon on Wednesday. This represents a $0.04 increase from a month ago and a $0.11 decrease from one year prior.

Factors Contributing to Rising Prices:

* Refinery maintenance and outages, particularly in California, have disrupted supply.
* The upcoming switch to more expensive summer fuel blends.

Forecasts and Expectations:

Experts predict further increases in gasoline prices, with GasBuddy anticipating a 25-60 cents per gallon rise by mid-April. The most significant increases are expected along the West Coast.

West Coast Impact:

California, already experiencing the highest gasoline prices in the US due to environmental initiatives, has witnessed a $0.41 increase over the past month, reaching $4.85 per gallon. Washington and Nevada have also experienced price jumps.

Long-Term Outlook:

Despite short-term price spikes, analysts forecast a decline in retail gas prices in the second half of 2025. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a $0.11 per gallon decrease this year and a further 6% drop in 2026, primarily due to lower crude oil prices and increased fuel efficiency.

Oil Market Volatility:

Oil futures have recently gained, influenced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) considering delaying its output increase. West Texas Intermediate crude has reached $72.50 per barrel, while Brent futures are trading above $76.

Impact of Ukraine Situation:

Traders are closely monitoring the potential impact of a peace deal in Ukraine and the potential lifting of Western sanctions against Russia. A reduction in sanctions could lead to downward pressure on oil prices.

Demand Concerns:

Concerns over a potential US trade war have also dampened price expectations, as Goldman Sachs suggests tariffs could impact global economic growth and oil demand.