Gasoline Prices Expected to Rise in Coming Weeks

California Refinery Issues Push West Coast Prices Higher

Gas prices are anticipated to climb in the upcoming weeks due to the impact of refinery maintenance and outages, particularly in California. These issues are disrupting the supply chain and pushing prices up in neighboring states.

National Average and Expected Increase

As of Wednesday, the national average gasoline price stood at $3.16 per gallon, a 4-cent increase from a month ago and 11 cents lower than a year ago. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, predicts the national average will rise by 25-60 cents between now and mid-April.

West Coast Price Surge

Tom Kloza, OPIS global head of energy analysis, forecasts a further increase of 20-33 cents per gallon before prices peak between Easter and Cinco de Mayo. The West Coast is expected to experience the highest fuel costs due to refinery maintenance and outages.

Seasonal Maintenance and Refinery Shutdown

Seasonal refinery maintenance and a February fire at the Martinez refinery in Northern California have reduced supply, further contributing to rising prices.

Annual Switch to Summer Blends

Western states will soon transition to more expensive summer fuel blends, which typically coincides with higher prices at the pump. California, already facing high gas costs, has seen a 41-cent increase over the past month to $4.85 per gallon.

Long-Term Outlook

Despite the short-term spike, Kloza anticipates a decline in gas prices in the second half of the year. The Energy Information Administration forecasts a 11-cent per gallon drop this year and a further 6% decrease in 2026 due to lower crude oil prices and improved fuel economy.

Impact of Global Events

Oil futures rose 1% on Wednesday as traders assessed the potential impact of a possible Ukraine peace deal and the lifting of Western sanctions against Russia. A potential deal and reduced sanctions could put downward pressure on oil prices.

Demand Concerns and Trade Wars

Concerns about a US tariff-induced trade war have also dampened oil demand and prices. Goldman Sachs predicts prices could fall in the medium term if tariffs weigh on global economic growth and oil consumption.