Gasoline Prices Poised to Rise in Anticipation of Summer Blends

As refineries undergo seasonal maintenance and outages, particularly in California, gasoline prices are expected to increase in the coming weeks. The national average price currently stands at $3.16 per gallon, a slight increase from a month ago and a decrease from a year ago.

West Coast Woes Fuel Price Hikes

The sharpest increases have been observed on the West Coast, where refinery issues have led to a ripple effect in neighboring states. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, anticipates a national average increase of $0.25 to $0.60 by mid-April, with prices remaining highest on the West Coast.

Seasonal Switch to Summer Blends

The annual switch to more expensive summer fuel blends, which western states are making first, has also contributed to the price hikes. California, known for its high gas prices due to environmental initiatives, has seen an average increase of $0.41 per gallon over the past month to $4.85, exceeding last year's prices.

Market Pressures and Forecasts

Planned refinery maintenance and the Northern California refinery fire have reduced supply and put pressure on prices. However, Tom Kloza, OPIS global head of energy analysis, predicts a peak in gas prices between Easter and Cinco de Mayo, followed by a decline in the second half of the year.

The Energy Information Administration forecasts a decrease in gasoline prices by $0.11 per gallon this year and a further 6% drop in 2026 due to lower crude oil prices and reduced consumption.

Oil Futures and Market Speculation

Oil futures jumped 1% after OPEC and its allies considered delaying their output raise, hovering around $72.50 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate and $76 per barrel for Brent. Traders are also monitoring the potential impact of a Ukraine peace deal and the threat of a US trade war on prices.