Coinbase Surprises with Strong Q4, Despite Mixed Outlook

Key Metrics:

- Q4 2024 transaction revenue: $1.556 billion (highest since Q4 2021)
- Retail trading volume: $94 billion (three-year high)
- Institutional trading volume: $345 billion (three-year high)

Market Reaction:

- Coinbase (COIN) shares fell slightly in pre-market trading despite strong earnings report
- Analysts attribute pullback to mixed guidance for Q1, including increased marketing spending

Analyst Commentary:

- JP Morgan: "We think management guided conservatively for the first quarter."
- Jefferies: "A more supportive US administration/Congress has created a 'sea change' in the regulatory backdrop."
- JP Morgan: "Given the valuation and potential near-term volatility, our rating is unchanged at Neutral; however, our price target jumps to $344."

Bullish Regulatory Environment:

- Coinbase executives highlight market structure and stablecoin regulation as priorities for the Trump administration
- CEO Brian Armstrong: "President Trump is moving fast to fulfill his promise of making US the crypto capital of the planet."

Wall Street Outlook:

- Analysts remain cautious due to near-term volatility and regulatory uncertainty
- Price targets vary, with Jefferies maintaining a $300 target and JP Morgan raising its target to $344