Chipotle Faces Headwinds, but Remains Strong
Despite industry challenges, Chipotle (CMG) is expected to report solid sales growth for Q4 and the full year.
Key Metrics
* Same-store sales growth forecast: 5.67% for Q4, 7.43% for the year
* Revenue: $2.85 billion (Q4 estimate)
* Adjusted earnings per share: $0.25 (Q4 estimate)
* Average check growth: 1.29% (Q4 estimate)
Earnings Drivers
* Chicken al pastor contributed to strong performance in Q2.
* Avocado and tomato supply concerns due to potential tariffs.
* Anticipation for the limited-time Chipotle Honey Chicken offering in Q1 2025.
Long-Term Outlook
* CEO Scott Boatwright aims to modernize the kitchen and expand to 7,000 locations.
* Continued strength in innovation and marketing, including the Honey Chicken.
* Automation, such as the digital makeline and Autocado, expected to enhance efficiency and fulfill online orders.
Analyst Commentary
* Bernstein: "Apparent intra-quarter sales growth moderation" ahead of full-year guidance announcement.
* TD Cowen: Mexican avocado imports could impact costs.
* Deutsche Bank: "Concerns on underlying fundamentals ... overblown" and expects continued growth in 2025.