Chipotle Exceeds Expectations Despite Headwinds, Announces Conservative 2025 Guidance

Financial Highlights:

* Q4 Same-store sales growth: 5.4%
* Q4 Revenue: $2.85 billion
* Full-Year Same-store sales growth: 7.4%
* Full-Year Revenue: $11.3 billion
* Q4 Adjusted EPS: $0.25
* Full-Year Adjusted EPS: $1.12

Business Update:

Despite challenging weather conditions and year-over-year comparisons, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) delivered strong sales growth in Q4 and throughout the year. New CEO Scott Boatwright emphasized the company's consistent transaction growth and margin expansion.

For fiscal 2025, Chipotle projects low- to mid-single-digit same-store sales growth due to tough year-over-year comparisons. The company plans to open 315-345 new locations and reach its target of 7,000 restaurants in North America.

Industry Analysis:

Analysts have expressed cautious optimism about Chipotle's guidance, with some expecting higher same-store sales growth. However, shares of CMG dropped 5% in after-hours trading.

Earnings Estimate Breakdown:

Key earnings metrics met Bloomberg consensus estimates, including adjusted EPS and revenue.

Tariffs and Costs:

Chipotle acknowledged potential tariff impacts, as the Mexican and Canadian imports account for 2% of its cost of sales. The company stated that if tariffs go into effect, it would have a 60-basis-point impact.

Innovation and Technology:

Boatwright highlighted the success of Chipotle Honey Chicken and hinted at future limited-time offerings. The company continues to invest in technology, including a digital makeline and Autocado robot, to improve efficiency and throughput.

Analyst Commentary:

Analysts remain bullish on Chipotle due to its innovation pipeline and marketing efforts. They believe the company's strength will continue in 2025 and beyond.